‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The ripple effects of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy transports through the vital shipping lane, stocks of kitchen fuel are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases close completely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies grow. Restaurant kitchens appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in food service establishments.

"The state of affairs is alarming. LPG simply is unavailable," says a representative of the an industry group.

Most food outlets run either on industrial fuel canisters or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have ceased operations - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are turning to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, media reports say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some restaurants say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are fluctuating as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers report a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the government insists there is adequate supply.

India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and authorities say supplies are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Roughly 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now effectively closed by the conflict.

The relevant department says that it directed refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for vital industries such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Unnecessary hoarding and stockpiling has been triggered by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a ministry representative.

Widening Concern

Now the anxiety is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the text reads.

According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The key weakness is kitchen fuel, analysts say.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can adjust processes to extract a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Fuel availability remains relatively comfortable. Cooking gas supply is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative states exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are misusing the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.