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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

However the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and recent strugglers ascending together. In an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still