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Within the considerable disarray regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The move to assault another sovereign country and capture its head of state – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.