Are You Not Being Entertained? The Decline of Open-Play Goals from Open Play

Football match action
Wolves managed a decrease of 10 scores from open-play situations than this point last season.

One of the biggest stories of the Premier League season so far concerns the decline of scoring in open-play scenarios and how sides are finding goals more from dead-ball situations as an alternative.

When we compare how goals have been scored to the first 11 games the prior season, we note a drop of 39 goals in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer in total.

If we look at the bigger picture, the number of shots sides are producing have seen a staggering drop of 370 in open-play than this time last time out.

Regardless of the significant rise in set-play finishes, records show a mere two extra attempts generated from these situations excluding penalties, demonstrating how effective clubs are at finding ways to convert from set-pieces.

Goal Statistics Reveal a Story

Over 300 goals notched in the first 110 fixtures so far works out at nearly 2.75 goals each match, if maintained for the entire campaign could be the least for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69 per game).

However, only 196 scores scored in open play translates to 1.78 per fixture and is heading to be the least for 16 seasons, back in 2009-10 (1.76 average).

The 2009-10 season additionally represents the sole English top-flight season to experience scoring more often from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 average).

Which Teams Account for This Change?

When it comes to goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen the largest decrease, registering just four in 11 matches, a reduction of 10 than this point the previous campaign.

Excluding Wolves, the EPL's decline in open-play scoring is very much a London phenomenon, with five out of the capital's seven sides scoring a minimum of five less scores from open play than the prior season.

In fairness, this is primarily due to their scoring numerous goals at the early stages of last season as opposed to them really struggling to score in open play this campaign.

Conversely Manchester City have recorded the most significant jump, with all but one of the 23 they've scored so far coming in open-play.

Set-Play Proficiency

We've compared clubs that came up with the relegated sides they replaced. Play-off winners the Black Cats have recorded three extra scores in open play than Southampton did in their first 11 games on their way to relegation last season.

When it comes to scoring from dead-ball situations (not counting penalties), Arsenal and the Blues have recorded the biggest increase, with the two clubs compensating for the five fewer scores that they've produced in open play with identical figures from dead-ball situations.

Man United have scored double the number scores from set-plays as they managed in matchday 11 last season ahead of Ruben Amorim assumed control, while Sunderland once more have been more successful at netting than the similar-colored team they superseded.

Man City don't seem to have got the memo about scoring more from set-plays, since they've recorded three less than the previous campaign, similar to the Reds, although that might be down to the tactical shift they have tried to implement.

League-Wide Trends

Six teams – Arsenal, Chelsea, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Spurs and West Ham – are the current campaign's leading trend-followers by recording fewer scores from open-play and additional from set-pieces, while Manchester City represent the unique club to buck the trend up to now by doing the exact opposite.

It will be fascinating to observe if teams carry on to depend greatly on set-plays as the campaign progresses or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and commence converting increased totals in open play also.

Joshua Nunez
Joshua Nunez

A journalist and tech enthusiast with a background in international relations, focusing on digital transformation and societal impacts.